There are plenty of ways to arrive at the ticket counter and make a decision one way or another. Some make picks based off allegiance to a team, while others use models. Some just take the favorite, and still others use a composite of any number of measures, both tangible and intangible.
So, when it comes to betting the NFL, how should you choose what to bet? What is some betting advice that should give you an edge? Here are a few basic tips to consider.
Don’t bet bad lines
If a team is widely available at -3, don’t lay -3.5. Or if they’re +8, don’t take the +7.5 when some market shops will still give you that half-point. Plenty of sports bettors “chase steam,” meaning they just jump on a line that’s moved, but what happens for a lot of steam chasers is they just end up getting the worst of the line if they aren’t watching the odds screen on a regular basis. In the NFL, where spreads are so precise and margins are slim, the difference in betting half-point or full-points worse than the closing line can be critical over the course of an entire season or seasons.
Bad things happen to bad teams
My best friend’s father told me this early in my gambling career, after I got reverse-backdoored on a game. My underdog bet of +10 was looking great for 99% of the game until the team gave up two scores late to lose by 17. The following Monday I lamented the bad beat, only to have him tell me “bad things happen to bad teams.” I’ll never forget that advice and neither should you.
Tease through 3 and 7 but never through 0
Teasers made crossing 3 and 7 have nearly or completely bankrupt some bookmakers. Unfortunately that success has resulted in some adjusted teaser prices almost universally. But in the right situations there can still be value, and this situation is about the only time that with teasing this holds true. As for teasing through 0 or pick ’em, just don’t do it. The math says it’s a terrible decision.
We can hardly wait for football season to start! If you’d like to wet your football whistle in the meantime, check out the future wagers at BetAmerica!