MLB Daily Pick for Wednesday Baseball

Arizona Diamondbacks (35-33) at Philadelphia Phillies (38-29), 7:05 p.m. ET

Merrill Kelly (6-6, 4.12 ERA) (ARZ) +125 / +1.5 runs (-175) / Over 9 runs (-115)
Zach Eflin (6-5, 2.88 ERA) (PHI) -135 / -1.5 runs (+145) / Under 9 runs (-105)

MLB free play: Phillies -0.5 first five innings (EVEN)

Based on the home and road splits of the respective starters, the Phillies are a good bet to secure an early lead over the Diamondbacks in Wednesday’s series finale at Citizens Bank Park.

Merrill Kelly will take the hill for Arizona. He was last seen holding the Blue Jays to one run on three hits in seven innings of work in Toronto on June 7, but his road ERA for the season is 6.00 (seven starts). Kelly’s home ERA is 2.35 (six starts). He’ll have to watch out for center fielder Scott Kingery, who has three home runs in this series alone and is slugging .960 over the last seven days.

Zach Eflin, who is 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA at home this season (five starts), will start for the Phillies. The Diamondbacks’ lineup is sixth in batting average with runners in scoring position, but Eflin has a .192 batting average against with runners in scoring position in 2019.

Milwaukee Brewers (38-29) at Houston Astros (46-22), 8:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) (MIL) +120 / +1.5 runs (-180) / Over 7.5 runs (EVEN)
Justin Verlander (9-2, 2.31 ERA) (HOU) -130 / -1.5 runs (+150) / Under 7.5 runs (-120)

MLB free play: Astros moneyline

The Brewers have won eight straight games started by Brandon Woodruff, but that streak could come to an end when they face Justin Verlander and the Astros at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday night.

Verlander has been one of the American League’s stingiest starting pitchers, particularly at night. He’s 7-1 with a 1.88 ERA and has an opponent batting average of .138 in 10 primetime outings this year. Milwaukee is a modest 17th in road batting average this year at .243.

Woodruff has pitched to an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. His strikeout/walk ratio drops from 5.55 at home to 3.22 on the road. Woodruff faces a Houston lineup that is third in home batting average at .275.