The big showdown between No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 LSU turned out to be a dud, as the Tigers put the tail between their legs in a 29-0 defeat in Baton Rouge. That loss eliminates LSU (7-2) from the college football playoff chase while Alabama remains No. 1 and firmly on top with Clemson No. 2. The close playoff pursuers all moved up in the College Football Playoff Week 11 rankings, and Alabama and Clemson are huge favorites again this week. Can No. 16 Mississippi State and No. 17 Boston College do any damage against these huge spreads? Let’s discuss in my Week 11 NCAAF free picks!
Saturday, November 10th
No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama (-25.0) – Alabama remains perfect and is 6-3 ATS this season while leading the country in scoring at 51.3 points per game. The Crimson Tide have beaten each of their last three SEC opponents by 29 points or more including last week’s 29-0 road win at LSU. The Tide are 2-5 ATS in recent seasons following its game against LSU, and a potential letdown returning home this week against a Bulldogs’ defense that is legit. Mississippi State allows just 12.3 points per game to rank No. 2 in the country and the Bulldogs have allowed just 2 touchdowns in their opponents’ last 51 possessions. The Bulldogs are also 6-3 SU and ATS this season, and while their offense has disappeared in three SEC games this season scoring 3,6 and 7 points, I like the defense to keep this close enough with an inflated point spread.
Week 11 NCAAF Free Picks: Mississippi State +25.0
No. 2 Clemson (-20.0) at No. 17 Boston College – The Tigers were sharply bet up from the opener of -17.0, and Clemson is likely in the CFB playoff even if they lose yet this season. The Tigers have won their last four games 63-3, 41-7, 59-10 and 77-16. That’s also 4-0 ATS covering by big margins. Don’t expect a defeat with a dominant defense and strong balanced offense leading Clemson, but the Tigers are in a negative ATS situation as a late-season undefeated road team. As the pressure builds to remain perfect and push towards the CFB Playoff and national championship, undefeated road teams are 65-84 ATS (43%) in their 10th game of the season since 1980. Boston College (7-2) has only lost on the road this season at Purdue and NC State. The Eagles are in 2nd place in the ACC Atlantic division with just one loss in conference play. The Eagles enter this division showdown with 3 straight wins and have covered four straight to make them 7-2 ATS this season. Boston College’s defense allows 4.7 yards per play to rank top-25 in the country and the Eagles red zone defense is top-10. Tough to get in front of the Tigers on the prowl, but I’ll take a shot this week.
Week 11 NCAAF Free Picks: Boston College +20.0
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.